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03/04/2003 Entry: "N.W. Run Forecast Summary - March 4, 2003"

I,m sure you've all heard by now of the upcoming salmon season. Here is a forecast summary of what to expect for the 2003 season, from the Stevens Marine Press Release, that I wanted to share with you.
The run forecast for Oregon, Washington and Idaho paint a very bright picture for 2003 salmon and steelhead fishing prospects. The days of depressed fish runs appear to be a fading memory as average to very good runs are anticipated this year. In fact, fisheries that were previously closed for nearly 3 decades have been reopened as several groups including the N.W. Sportfishing Industry Association have worked diligently over the last 10 years to restore and enhance fish runs across the N.W.
The first major salmon of the year should range from good to outstanding depending on which river system anglers select. The Columbia River, which is expected to remain open the entire season with no anticipated early closures, should provide good action for salmon anglers right through the months of March,April and May. The run is expected down from last years totals but with 145,400 fish forecast to return it's sizing up to be the fourth largest return since 1973.
The big news with spring chinook in 2003 is Oregon's Willamette River. Improved spill from the dams and acceptable flow the last 4 years has improved the outmigration of salmon and steelhead smolts throughout the Willamette system. The projected return of 109,800 "springers" would be the 3rd largest ever for the Willamette. 89,200 are expected to be returning 5 year olds, which not only is a record high, but puts a new spin on the fact that this is going to be a "big" run of Chinook salmon.
Both the Columbia and the Willamette Rivers are managed as a selective fisheries where only fin-marked salmon may be harvested. Both rivers will be open 7 days a week.
There's more Spring Salmon news.
Oregon's Clackamas River will be managed again as a selective fishery, with a prediction of 14,400 salmon expected to return, very much like 2002, which was a record return.
In Southern Oregon, the Rogue River is expected to post a solid "average" run of between 25-35,000 spring salmon at Gold Ray Dam. Last year's return of 48,200 springers was the largest run since 1995.
Wahington's Yakima and Snake rivers are expected to be down considerably from last year's outstanding spring Chinook returns but should still deliver good angling opportunity. The Yakima, for example, was projected to return 21,800 springers in 2002, the actual run came in around 14,600 fish and this year's return is predicted to be around 6,400. The Snake River should produce approximately 72,500 returning spring Chinook, down from 132,700 fish the year before.
More encouraging news is found on the Cowlitz, Kalama and Lewis Rivers, which should all see more spring chinook in 2003. These rivers just a few short years ago were collectively returning less than 5,000 fish, now, they're anticipated to return avbout 10,800 spring salmon.
Last year's Columbia River summer steelhead fishiery was historic. In fact, it was the 2nd largest run on record with 478,000 upriver summer steelhead counted at Bonneville Dam. 2003 is predicted to result in a run of 360,900 "summers" which should make for some outstanding opportunity throughout the summer and into the Fall.
The Columbia's once decimated summer Chinook run appears to be in good shape too with a run prediction of 87,00 up from last year's forecast of 77,700. Last year was the first year since 1973 that this fishery had been open and resulted in 40,900 angler trips.
This summers ocean salmon fishing is expected to be very good as well. Last summer for many it was excellent and 2003 is expected to be much the same with improved populations of coho.
One of the regions most important fisheries, the lower Columbia's "Buoy 10" area, which , has the biologists talking and trying to agree just how good it's going to be this year. Coho, which were noticeably down last year should show marked improvement in 2003, though pinning down the numbers has been a bit difficult. The concensus at this time is that it will surely eclipse the 1/2 million mark and may end up closer to a million returning silvers than the 1/2 million by the time all's said and done. Chinook fishing should be outstanding with runs expected to be down from last year but still strong as ever.
Though it still a way out, and theres no hard and fast numbers available yet, coastal fall Chinook prospects should be healthy with "excellent" opportunity available in central and south coast fisheries, and "good" prospects for the North Oregon coast. Washington coastal fisheries should expect the same opportunity, which should be good too.
Finally, no empirical information is yet available on Puget Sound opportunities other than in most cases (Chinook & Coho) they're expected to be similar to last year's runs, which in some cases were exceptional (i.e. chum). 2002's Chum salmon run was off the charts and most feel an anomaly, so it's a wait and see game with those returns, but 2003 should be another very good year for the Puget Sound Chum salmon. Just how good is a best guess.
The sockeye run should be down too, but by how much is anyone's guess. It's as yet unclear if there will be a Lake Washington sockeye season in 2003. 2004 is expected to yeild another bumper crop of sockeye surpassing the run of 2002.
2003 is a "humpy" year. In the N.W. that means pink salmon will be migrating en masse to their N.W. Washington natal rivers. About a half million pinks are due to arriver this year. The pinks show every other year and in 2001 the run bordered on the unbelievable as new world records were posted and humpies filled a number of North Puget Sound Rivers. 2003 probably wont be as strong as 2001 but it's expected to be anywhere from good to very good.
Finally, last year's run of Shad, some 3.4 million, the second highest return recorded in the Willamete and Columbia, resulted in 27,500 angler trips in 2002 and is expected to be the same in 2003. Look for this return to get started in early May and contiue hot and heavy into the middle of June.
Add these prospects to the vast diverse array of fresh and saltwater non migratory fishereis and N.W. anglers have much to cheer in 2003. In the N.W. 2003 may very well go down as the "year of the fish".